In 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country. On the surface, everything appears to be going in our favor: A booming headcount of over 1.428 billion, a young median age of 28.8, and many more. However, this data cloaks the worrying trend of declining TFR (Total Fertility Rate) of the Hindu community.
The last measured TFR of Hindus in 2019-20 was 1.9, a drop of 41.3% since 1992. This is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, and is only upheld by the high rates of fertility of people in the Ganga plains. Many regions of the country will have even lower TFR.
Compared to us, the 2nd largest majority i.e. muslims, have a buoyant TFR of 2.4.
Add to it the illegal immigration from neighboring countries, and the proportion of muslims in India is fast approaching pre-partition figures.
Over a century ago in 1912, Col. U Mukerji, author of ‘Hindus: A Dying Race’, met Swami Shraddhanand and warned him about the catastrophic decline in Hindu population. The Col. apprised Swamiji that all other factors remaining the same, the Hindu population will come down to zero in the span of 420 years if conditions don’t change.
After a bloody partition that cost us one-third of our land, we are back to square one.
Why did this happen?
The Diagnosis
The Hindu resistance to procreation is not unique. Across the world as communities have modernized, their TFRs have fallen. Multiple reasons can be attributed for this decline, chief among them being economics.
The modern economy, by and large, structures society as an agglomeration of individuals. Left to fend for themselves, the biggest unit that such individuals form is the nuclear family. It is a far cry from the erstwhile structuring of the society, which was composed of large joint families, strong village and jaati bonds, and shrenis or trade guilds.
A nuclear family is far more susceptible to the headwinds of the economy than a community.
Given the rising costs of living, the average couple finds it difficult to plan for a family. All costs, from living expenses, to the birth of the child in a good hospital, to his/her education in a ‘reputed’ school, food, recreation and vacation, etc. have to be factored in before bringing children into this world. And all of this must be borne by the parents without help from the community. Granted, Indian society still has greater community support than developed countries, but the shift towards atomization is unmistakable.
The Nuclear Family Challenge
In nuclear families, more often than not, both parents work, either for making ends meet or for passion, leaving kids at the mercy of stranger nannies and daycare. Schools today are indeed more about daycare and less about education; a place where parents can drop their kids to gain some respite.
In the remaining time, parents try to fulfill the needs of their children, both physical and material, to the best of their abilities. However, not having a community to back them creates a fresh set of problems.
Parents are averse to allowing their kids too much freedom outside, due to their distrust/fear of strangers. This is because communal bonds are lacking. Bereft of experience in the outside world, children take to social media, where they are prone to all sorts of influences. Jonathan Haidt writes about this, noting how online communities are different from the offline ones. In an online community, there are no barriers to entry or leaving. Thus, the possibility of forming strong bonds is absent. On the other hand, the risk of trolling is very high, which can severely impact the mental health of children.
Since nowadays there is a greater tendency to control and scrutinize, limited bandwidth of parents ensures that they have less children. Earlier when children erred, parents could count upon other adults to rectify their behavior. Today, a parent is more likely to go to the police if another adult as much as chides their children. Furthermore, many Hindus only go for a single child now. This deprives the child from the extremely important bond of siblings, and its concomitant virtues of learning to share. Traditional Hindu wisdom says, just like a single eye is not sufficient, so a single child is not. This wisdom has been ignored today.
Given all these negative influences, there is further disincentive to procreate.
Other Factors for Drop in TFR
Desire today is being shaped by social media platforms such as Instagram, which paints an unrealistic picture of the success of peers. Faced with such desires, the average couple must make the choice between spending money over child rearing (a tiring prospect) or to spend it on themselves. This is a reason why DINK (Double Income No Kids) is a growing trend in India as well.
Additionally, the various weaponisable laws being brought about in our country strike at the very root of the Hindu marriage institution. Marriages are increasingly being looked at through the Abrahamic mold of ‘contract’, which focuses on the consent of two adults coming into union through phrases such as ‘I do’ and ‘Qubool hai’. The Hindu objective of dampatya, i.e. begetting children, is getting completely forgotten.
All of these contribute to the decline in Hindu TFR.
In contrast, the muslim society still has a strong sense of community. They generally tend to live in places where they are in majority, in order to ensure community support. They are less dependent on jobs and more on their own self income. Also, they are strongly knit to their theology, which makes them insulated from the vagaries of modernity. Although the muslim TFR is declining as well, these factors ensure that they outpace Hindus.
If this continues, Hindus will have the rug pulled out from under their feet in no time at all. Population is not a slow declining curve. If the rate of fall of TFR continues in its trajectory, then all the population gains of today will be wiped out within two generations.
The Cure
There is no cure if the Hindu society continues in its atomization path. It has to reinforce its foundations of community.
Many roles that have been usurped by the modern economy must be reclaimed by the community, foremost among them being education. An education which does not enlighten the child about his own local history, geography and culture is not worth certifying. And such an education cannot be imparted under a central mandate, it has to be spearheaded by the community, which is the only way to make it inexpensive and equitable as well.
A strong community also ensures security, both physical and economical. Living amongst a community of friends and family, the parents are more open to their child wandering on their own. Economically, there is an entire community to cushion your falls, if in case any venture fails. The individual in turn, is also honor bound to provide the same cushioning to the others.
This advocacy for communal living must not be confused with communism. The greatest misdiagnosis of communism is its failure to recognize the entrepreneurial spirit of humans, and that there is bound to inequality amongst members of any society. The solution to inequality is not a mandate from the State above, but instilling ideals of harmony and philanthropy, service and piety. It is not as if Hindu communal living cannot integrate modern economics. The Gujarati Patel community in the USA is a good example. They successfully dominated the motel industry by strongly supporting their own community.
Such feelings of community are especially heightened when surrounded by a sea of strangers. However, the same spirit is lacking in Indian masses, because here we are cajoled by the numbers that we are majority, not recognising the perilous undercurrent of shifting demographics.
In any case, framing your existence on the basis of an opposition to someone else is not a very Hindu way of doing things. There is an alternate method to organize the society as a strong community, but it needs an anchor; a nodal point around which the community can rally. Thankfully, our ancestors have left such a node for us in the form of the Hindu temple.
The Anchor of the Hindu Community
The temple was once upon a time the spiritual, economic, physical, and educational centre of the community. It was the place of Hindu rites of passage: toddlers transitioning into students through vidyarambha, children maturing as adults through upanayanam, and adults transforming into householders through panigrahan. Today, we have scant rites of passage, and the resulting nihilism is for everyone to see.
It was also the economical hub. Though Marxist historians lie to us about the reason for temple destruction being its wealth, it is beyond doubt that temples were the reservoirs of Hindu money. In his book Dharmanomics, Sreeram Balasubramaniam writes how temples served as banks in ancient India. Sanjeev Sanyal further writes how these temples bankrolled oceanic expeditions to foreign lands for trade.
Another aspect of temple grounds which has been almost forgotten is malla-krida or martial arts. It was on the red soil of the temple where wrestlers fought after paying due obeisance to Hanuman. Today that tradition exists only in pockets, with modern Hindus preferring AC gyms and sculpted bodies.
There is a plethora of communal activities that can be performed in temples, apart from just visiting it on tithis. If Hindus are able to revive temples as the center of communal activities, then we will be able to solve the problem of not only low TFR, but also face many other vagaries of modernity.
Feature Image Credit: istockphoto.com
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